BERLIN – I cannot recall a time during the past 75 years when there has been such a massive accumulation of major and minor shocks. The world today is dealing with intensifying climate change, a pandemic, major wars, surging inflation, disruptions to international trade and supply chains, and acute food and energy shortages. A significant share of this turmoil stems from new (and renewed) rivalries between major powers. This has had highly visible and chaotic consequences, epitomized by Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine. One does not have to be a prophet of doom to foresee that the conflict will be one act in a longer tragedy. In East Asia, China’s claim to Taiwan also threatens to lead to military escalation. And in the Middle East, Iran’s ongoing nuclear program could all too easily trigger a major military conflict.