The report traditionally, for the third time, presents the issue of public debt in Poland, updating the discussion of its growth and stability factors, but also the current risks of leading to its excessive level, eventually leading to a situation in which control over debt dynamics is lost and a debt crisis occurs. This year, in addition to updating the assessment of the state of public finances in the period 2022-2023 and the market and macroeconomic conditions, we describe the proposal for reform of the EU fiscal framework, going explicitly in the direction of promoting public debt sustainability, deal with financial stability in the context of changes in valuations of debt instruments (rising bond yields), and point out the interaction between public debt and inflation. We warn again. In 2021, we warned against the overly optimistic assumption that a world of low interest rates is a given forever, and one actually has to go into debt under such conditions, because public debt will “pay for itself.” In 2022, we warned against underestimating the medium- and long-term challenges to public finances. Now we see that the warnings of the previous two years are overlapping: elevated interest rates will stay with us for a long time, because inflation is stubborn and does not want to quickly return to a level acceptable to the public and monetary authorities, and analyses of the sustainability of the public debt indicate that it is increasingly at risk in the medium and long term. And in the short term, in addition to infrastructure needs and low levels of investment in the economy, the ongoing war in Ukraine points to the need for a jump in costly spending on modernizing the armed forces. And on top of that, we are in the midst of an election year, which is likely to result in more promises and projects of a political nature, for which there are also no funds in the budget and, if implemented, will imply a further increase in public debt. These and many other issues related to public debt are discussed by the authors, Rafal Benecki, Slawomir Dudek and Ludwik Kotecki, in the report “Threats of Excessive Public Debt – 2023 Edition” prepared by the Institute for Responsible Finance in partnership and with the support of the Friendly Country Foundation and the Institute of Public Finance.

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European Financial Congress2-4 June 2025

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